Global betting revenue for the upcoming FIFA World Cup is likely to be “in excess of $50 billion”, betting expert Darren Small told AFP, for an event he labelled “the biggest circus in town.”
The revenue will be significantly higher than the 2022 edition, partly because the quadrennial football fiesta has been enlarged to 48 teams from the 32 in Qatar.
Player props
Another factor according to Small, Managing Director of Managed Trading Services at Sportradar, is punters have become more “interested in the celebrity of a player” than in the old days of betting simply on a team.
Sportradar Group AG is a global sports technology company that says it creates immersive experiences for sports fans and bettors.
“We expect a lot of interest around the player props and what we call bet builders or custom bet options,” Small told AFP in an interview.
“So we’re anticipating that that’s going to be a big drive for us. We’re going to see a lot more interest on that.
“So players scoring left foot, right foot, number of passes, tackles, whatever the numbers are.
“Then subsequently the customers taking that and building out narratives like stories of ‘I think this game will be X team to win with both teams to score, player X scoring with his head and there being 15 corners’.”
“The sheer size and scale of this tournament will ensure it is the biggest betting event ever,” David Stevens, head of Public Relations at English bookmaker Coral, told AFP.
Betting opportunities
Stevens said Bet Builder was “one of the fastest growing areas of our business” which sates the appetite of a “new, younger customer base” who are looking “for more dynamic betting opportunities.”
Small said most money in bets already placed with Sportradar’s 250 sports books clients across the globe has gone on Argentina and France.
However, Stevens said there remains a considerable number of people hoping England end a 60-year wait for a second World Cup.
“They are in fact third favourites, behind only France and Spain, and should Thomas Tuchel end 60 years of hurt, we bookmakers will be facing a significant payout,” he said.
“However, the increasingly global nature of our business means an England victory would not be as costly as it would have been a decade ago, for example.”
‘Peculiar not sinister’
With regard to the individual stars, great interest surrounds the Golden Boot for top scorer with French star Kylian Mbappe and Norway’s hitman Erling Haaland attracting a lot of money.
“In excess of 20 percent of our volume and our tickets… have been struck on Haaland so far,” said Small.
However, Small is more intrigued by another name that features for the moment in the top 10 of potential top scorers thanks to bets placed.
It is fair to say that Port Vale – who have just been relegated to the fourth tier of the English league – have not had many players represent them at a World Cup finals.
However, the club’s New Zealand striker Ben Waine is the one where the money is being placed.
“We’ve seen a bit of a run on New Zealand’s centre forward into the top 10 of the betting for the World Cup,” said Small.
“It’s really strange, as in peculiar not sinister.”
Geographical spread
Both Small and Stevens agree the geographical spread of the matches at a tournament being co-hosted by the United States, Canada and Mexico does present problems.
“The only challenge that we have is obviously times, from the European audience perspective,” said Small.
“The West Coast games will put a bit of pressure on that because they’re going to be difficult to follow for the people that are trying to follow from Europe.
“But we’ve also got a very active South American region now with Brazil and others.”
There has been little interest in a US win but should they cause a huge upset then their captain might face competition from President Donald Trump as to who holds the trophy aloft.
“Should the USA defy odds of 40/1 and lift the trophy, expect very short odds about the President being at the centre of the celebrations!” said Stevens.
By Garrin Lambley © Agence France-Presse
