With Bafana Bafana facing South Korea in the early hours of Thursday morning, millions of South Africans will be glued to their TV screens hoping to see Hugo Broos’ men qualify for the knockout stages of the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
But the path does not seem simple, after the opening match defeat to Mexico and the 1-1 draw with Czechia.
Bafana currently sit at the bottom of Group A, and another defeat would definitely send them back home.
A draw would see Broos’ side finish on two points, but also with a -2 goal difference. In the ranking for the best third-placed teams, Bafana could move into seventh place IF they draw and Czechia lose to Mexico.
If Czechia also got a point vs Mexico or perhaps even beat the co-hosts, who are already qualified, Bafana would be going home. With the -2 goal difference, the route via a draw and only two points seems unlikely to lead to the promised land.
Best third-placed teams ahead of match day 3:
A win would see Bafana move to four points, thus definitely overtake South Korea. Unless Czechia beat Mexico, three points would see Bafana qualify for the knockout stages of the World Cup for the first time ever.
But if Czechia would also beat Mexico, Bafana would need to either better Czechia’s goal difference (currently -1), or equal the Europeans on goal difference but score more goals (currently Czechia two, Bafana one).
The next tie breakers in the group standings are team conduct or “fair play” with Bafana sitting far below due to their red cards in the opener vs Mexico, and then the latest FIFA ranking, with South Africa also the lowest-ranked team in Group A.
How Bafana qualify:
- Beat South Korea, and Czechia draw or lose vs Mexico
- Beat South Korea by a margin of 3 goals, and Czechia beat Mexico by a margin of just 1 goal
- Beat South Korea in a high-scoring match by a margin of 2 goals, and Czechia beat Mexico in a low-scoring match by a margin of 1 goal (for example: Bafana 3-1 Korea, Czechia 1-0 Mexico)
- Draw vs South Korea, and Czechia lose to Mexico – then pray that the third-ranked teams from four other groups won’t get to two points and a -2 goal difference (which seems unlikely)
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